Forward modelling of brightness variations in Sun-like stars I. Emergence and surface transport of magnetic flux

The latitudinal distribution of starspots deviates from the solar pattern with increasing rotation rate. Numerical simulations of magnetic flux emergence and transport can help model the observed stellar activity patterns and the associated brightness variations. We set up a composite model for the processes of flux emergence and transport on Sun-like stars, to simulate stellar brightness variations for various levels of magnetic activity and rotation rates. Assuming that the distribution of magnetic flux at the base of the convection zone follows solar scaling relations, we calculate the emergence latitudes and tilt angles of bipolar regions at the surface for various rotation rates, using thin-flux-tube simulations. Taking these two quantities as input to a surface flux transport SFT model, we simulate the diffusive-advective evolution of the radial field at the stellar surface, including effects of active region nesting. As the rotation rate increases, (1) magnetic flux emerges at higher latitudes and an inactive gap opens around the equator, reaching a half-width of $20^\circ$ for $8\Omega_\odot$, (2) the tilt angles of freshly emerged bipolar regions show stronger variations with latitude. Polar spots can form at $8\Omega_\odot$ by accumulation of follower-polarity flux from decaying bipolar regions. From $4\Omega_\odot$ to $8\Omega_\odot$, the maximum spot coverage changes from 3 to 20%, respectively, compared to 0.4% for the solar model. Nesting of activity can lead to strongly non-axisymmetric spot distributions. On Sun-like stars rotating at $8\Omega_\odot$ ($P_{\rm rot}\simeq 3$ days), polar spots can form, owing to higher levels of flux emergence rate and tilt angles. Defining spots by a threshold field strength yields global spot coverages that are roughly consistent with stellar observations.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures. Astron. & Astrophys. (in press); minor language corrections mad

New rotation period measurements of 67,163 Kepler stars

The Kepler space telescope leaves a legacy of tens of thousands of stellar rotation period measurements. While many of these stars show strong periodicity, there exists an even bigger fraction of stars with irregular variability for which rotation periods are unknown. As a consequence, many stellar activity studies might be strongly biased toward the behavior of more active stars with measured rotation periods. To at least partially lift this bias, we apply a new method based on the Gradient of the Power Spectrum (GPS). The maximum of the gradient corresponds to the position of the inflection point (IP). It was shown previously that the stellar rotation period $P_{rot}$ is linked to the inflection point period $P_{IP}$ by the simple equation $P_{rot} = P_{IP}/\alpha$, where $\alpha$ is a calibration factor. The GPS method is superior to classical methods (such as auto-correlation functions (ACF)) because it does not require a repeatable variability pattern in the time series. From the initial sample of 142,168 stars with effective temperature $T_{eff}\leq6500K$ and surface gravity $log g\geq4.0$ in the Kepler archive, we could measure rotation periods for 67,163 stars by combining the GPS and the ACF method. We further report the first determination of a rotation period for 20,397 stars. The GPS periods show good agreement with previous period measurements using classical methods, where these are available. Furthermore, we show that the scaling factor $\alpha$ increases for very cool stars with effective temperatures below 4000K, which we interpret as spots located at higher latitudes. We conclude that new techniques (such as the GPS method) must be applied to detect rotation periods of stars with small and more irregular variabilities. Ignoring these stars will distort the overall picture of stellar activity and, in particular, solar-stellar comparison studies.Comment: 15 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in A&

The Sun is less active than other solar-like stars

Magnetic activity of the Sun and other stars causes their brightness to vary. We investigate how typical the Sun's variability is compared to other solar-like stars, i.e. those with near-solar effective temperatures and rotation periods. By combining four years of photometric observations from the Kepler space telescope with astrometric data from the Gaia spacecraft, we measure photometric variabilities of 369 solar-like stars. Most of the solar-like stars with well-determined rotation periods show higher variability than the Sun and are therefore considerably more active. These stars appear nearly identical to the Sun, except for their higher variability. Their existence raises the question of whether the Sun can also experience epochs of such high variability.Comment: Accepted for publication in Science. 3 (main) + 10 (supplementary) figure

Modeling of the atmospheric response to a strong decrease of the solar activity

We estimate the consequences of a potential strong decrease of the solar activity using the model simulations of the future driven by pure anthropogenic forcing as well as its combination with different solar activity related factors: total solar irradiance, spectral solar irradiance, energetic electron precipitation, solar protons and galactic cosmic rays. The comparison of the model simulations shows that introduced strong decrease of solar activity can lead to some delay of the ozone recovery and partially compensate greenhouse warming acting in the direction opposite to anthropogenic effects. The model results also show that all considered solar forcings are important in different atmospheric layers and geographical regions. However, in the global scale the solar irradiance variability can be considered as the most important solar forcing. The obtained results constitute probably the upper limit of the possible solar influence. Development of the better constrained set of future solar forcings is necessary to address the problem of future climate and ozone layer with more confidenc

Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer: Overdiagnosis in randomised controlled trials of breast cancer screening

Data from randomised controlled trials of mammographic screening can be used to determine the extent of any overdiagnosis, as soon as either a time equivalent to the lead-time has elapsed after the final screen, or the control arm has been offered screening. This paper reviews those randomised trials for which breast cancer incidence data are available. In recent trials in which the control group has not been offered screening, an excess incidence of breast cancer remains after many years of follow-up. In those trials in which the control arm has been offered screening, although there is a possible shift from invasive to in situ disease, there is no evidence of overdiagnosis as a result of incident screens

Probing Pseudogap by Josephson Tunneling

We propose here an experiment aimed to determine whether there are superconducting pairing fluctuations in the pseudogap regime of the high-$T_c$ materials. In the experimental setup, two samples above $T_c$ are brought into contact at a single point and the differential AC conductivity in the presence of a constant applied bias voltage between the samples, $V$, should be measured. We argue the the pairing fluctuations will produce randomly fluctuating Josephson current with zero mean, however the current-current correlator will have a characteristic frequency given by Josephson frequency $\omega_J = 2 e V /\hbar$. We predict that the differential AC conductivity should have a peak at the Josephson frequency with the width determined by the phase fluctuations time.Comment: 4 pages, 2 eps figure

Solar-type Stars Observed by LAMOST and Kepler

Obtaining measurements of chromospheric and photometric activity of stars with near-solar fundamental parameters and rotation periods is important for a better understanding of solar-stellar connection. We select a sample of 2603 stars with near-solar fundamental parameters from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST)-Kepler field and use LAMOST spectra to measure their chromospheric activity and Kepler light curves to measure their photospheric activity (i.e., the amplitude of the photometric variability). While the rotation periods of 1556 of these stars could not be measured due to the low amplitude of the photometric variability and highly irregular temporal profile of light curves, 254 stars were further identified as having near-solar rotation periods. We show that stars with near-solar rotation periods have chromospheric activities that are systematically higher than stars with undetected rotation periods. Furthermore, while the solar level of photospheric and chromospheric activity appears to be typical for stars with undetected rotation periods, the Sun appears to be less active than most stars with near-solar rotation periods (both in terms of photospheric and chromospheric activity).Comment: 7 pages, 6 figure

Synthesis of inorganic dyes based on plasmonic silver nanoparticles for the visible and infrared regions of the spectrum

The effect of various technological factors during the multistage synthesis of plasmonic silver particles in aqueous solutions on nanoparticle size, morphology, and color is studied. The synthesized suspensions are found to contain tabular silver nanoparticles of hexagonal and triangular shape. The foundations of the technology for synthesizing stable silver colloids with a high silver concentration for the visible and nearinfrared regions of the spectrum are developed

Perturbation Theory for the Rosenzweig-Porter Matrix Model

We study an ensemble of random matrices (the Rosenzweig-Porter model) which, in contrast to the standard Gaussian ensemble, is not invariant under changes of basis. We show that a rather complete understanding of its level correlations can be obtained within the standard framework of diagrammatic perturbation theory. The structure of the perturbation expansion allows for an interpretation of the level structure on simple physical grounds, an aspect that is missing in the exact analysis (T. Guhr, Phys. Rev. Lett. 76, 2258 (1996), T. Guhr and A. M\"uller-Groeling, cond-mat/9702113).Comment: to appear in PRE, 5 pages, REVTeX, 2 figures, postscrip

Confronting a solar irradiance reconstruction with solar and stellar data

Context. A recent paper by Shapiro and colleagues (2011, A&A, 529, A67) reconstructs spectral and total irradiance variations of the Sun during the holocene. Aims. In this note, we comment on why their methodology leads to large (0.5%) variations in the solar TSI on century-long time scales, in stark contrast to other reconstructions which have ≲ 0.1% variations. Methods. We examine the amplitude of the irradiance variations from the point of view of both solar and stellar data. Results. Shapiro et al.’s large amplitudes arise from differences between the irradiances computed from models A and C of Fontenla and colleagues, and from their explicit assumption that the radiances of the quiet Sun vary with the cosmic ray modulation potential. We suggest that the upper photosphere, as given by model A, is too cool, and discuss relative contributions of local vs. global dynamos to the magnetism and irradiance of the quiet Sun. We compare the slow (\u3e22 yr) components of the irradiance reconstructions with secular changes in stellar photometric data that span 20 years or less, and find that the Sun, if varying with such large amplitudes, would still lie within the distribution of stellar photometric variations measured over a 10−20 year period. However, the stellar time series are individually too short to see if the reconstructed variations will remain consistent with stellar variations when observed for several decades more. Conclusions. By adopting model A, Shapiro et al. have over-estimated quiet-Sun irradiance variations by about a factor of two, based upon a re-analysis of sub-mm data from the James Clerk Maxwell telescope. But both estimates are within bounds set by current stellar data. It is therefore vital to continue accurate photometry of solar-like stars for at least another decade, to reveal secular and cyclic variations on multi-decadal time scales of direct interest to the Sun